The U.S. is currently spending hundreds of millions of dollars to pay the monthly salaries of some 600,000 armed fighters in the three rival ethnic camps in Iraq. These fighters-Shiite, Kurd and Sunni Arab-are not only antagonistic but deeply unreliable allies. The Sunni Arab militias have replaced central government officials, including police, and taken over local administration and security in the pockets of Iraq under their control. They have no loyalty outside of their own ethnic community. Once the money runs out, or once they feel strong enough to make a thrust for power, the civil war in Iraq will accelerate with deadly speed. The tactic of money-for-peace failed in Afghanistan. The U.S. doled out funds and weapons to tribal groups in Afghanistan to buy their loyalty, but when the payments and weapons shipments ceased, the tribal groups headed back into the embrace of the Taliban.
The Sunni Arab militias are known by a variety of names: the Iraqi Security Volunteers (ISVs), neighborhood watch groups, Concerned Local Citizens, Critical Infrastructure Security. The militias call themselves “sahwas” (”sahwa” being the Arabic word for awakening). There are now 80,000 militia fighters, nearly all Sunni Arabs, paid by the United States to control their squalid patches of Iraq. They are expected to reach 100,000. The Sunni Arab militias have more fighters under arms than the Shiite Mahdi Army and are about half the size of the feeble Iraqi army. The Sunni Awakening groups, which fly a yellow satin flag, are forming a political party.
The Sunni Arab militias, though they have ended attacks on U.S. forces, detest the Shiite-Kurdish government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and abhor the presence of U.S. troops on Iraqi soil. They take the money and the support with clenched teeth because with it they are able to build a renegade Sunni army, a third force inside Iraq, which they believe will make it possible to overthrow the central government. The Sunni Arabs, who make up about 40 percent of Iraq’s population, held most positions of power under Saddam Hussein. They dominated Iraq’s old officer corps. They made up its elite units, including the Republic Guard divisions and the Special Forces regiments. They controlled the intelligence agencies. There are several hundred thousand well-trained Sunni Arabs who lack only an organizational structure. We have now made the formation of this structure possible. These militias are the foundation for a deadlier insurgent force, one that will dwarf anything the United States faced in the past. The U.S. is arming, funding and equipping its own assassins.
New Twist on Stained Glass
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My son was in the 4th Infantry Division. So was Evan Knappenberger.
4ID is back in Iraq.
Evan writes in an article entitled Petraeus' Bed-Time Story: The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy of Doom:
An excerpt:
"But what does this mean? What are the implications of this drop in violence? Petraeus and his minions want the world to believe it is because of the surge-ops, but the guys in the S-2's know better. The real story has something more to do with the massive amounts of money being paid to insurgents -- THAT'S RIGHT THEY SAME GUYS THAT KILLED OUR BUDDIES LAST YEAR -- to not attack us this year. More likely, it might have something to do with the fact that we have just armed a corps-sized element of Sunni militia with shiny new weapons and the "next-generation" of equipment and uniforms.
Despite the dashing narratives made up by the master story-tellers wearing stars on their collars, the poor guys in the 2-shops are scared. They know that the present calm is waiting to be shattered like a bottle in a biker bar at 0200. They are scared that, when the shit hits the proverbial fan, we won't stand a chance. They realize that our guys are tired and that we never expected to be into this occupation eyes-deep, while the guys down the road are taking a break and spending all that nice new American money (which, by the way, is worth less and less these days,) on the only thing to buy in Iraq: hot new guns and explosives. They are scared of the militia which is sitting at the kitchen table eyeing them nastily while Papa Petraeus insists they are friendly. "Now, kids, it's not nice to be unfriendly to our neighborly Sunni militia. Why can't you share your allowance with them?" he chides us.
But what the guys in the 2-shop are also thinking is, "where is AQ in all of this? They've been told for years to diligently track down and neutralize all these Al-Qaeda terrorists, but suddenly attacks stop as soon as the militias are sated by our re-directed VA funds. The good 96B analyst knows that zealot AQ are not so easily stopped; and he wonders absently where they could have gone, or if they were even there to begin with."
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