Monday, November 27, 2006

On the Rise of China and India

The former head of the World Bank is advising the West to prepare for the economic dominance of China and India. Here's an excerpt from an AFP report:

Within 25 years, the combined gross domestic products of China and India would exceed those of the Group of Seven wealthy nations, he said.

"This is not a trivial advance, this is a monumental advance."

Wolfensohn said that somewhere between 2030 and 2040, China would become the largest economy in the world, leaving the United States behind.

By 2050, China's current two trillion US dollar GDP was set to balloon to 48.6 trillion, while that of India, whose economy weighs in at under a trillion dollars, would hit 27 trillion, he said, citing projections by investment bank Goldman Sachs.

In comparison, the US's 13 trillion dollar income would expand to only 37 trillion -- 10 trillion behind China.

"You will have in the growth of these countries a 22 times growth between now and the year 2050 and the current rich countries will grow maybe 2.5 times."

1 comment:

P M Prescott said...

Ballance by population could be achieved, but those projections are based on times of relative peace and sane leaders. Another Mao that wants to return China to it's glorious agrarian past, Pakistan using it's nukes on India, could slow down those two countries economic growth. Prolonging our wars in Iraq and Afghanistan could significantly weaken our projected growth. New technologies not forseen now could also change the economic ballance of power.