Here's a paragraph from the press release about Gardiner's credentials:
Sam Gardiner is a retired Air Force colonel who has taught strategy and military operations at the National War College, Air War College, and Naval War College. He was recently a visiting scholar at the Swedish Defense College. During the second Gulf War, he was a regular on CNN, the NewsHour with Jim Lehrer, BBC radio and television, and National Public Radio. He has conducted war games on Iran and North Korea.Here's a summary of what Gardiner is saying:
Gardiner also argues that the administration's frequent efforts to link Iran and al Qaeda may represent an effort by the Oval Office to authorize air strikes on Iran without first consulting Congress. "This linkage of Iran and al Qaeda fits neatly into the broader effort to sell a strike to the American people," he wrote. "But more importantly, it opens the way for an argument that a strike on Iran was part of the global war on terrorism already authorized by the Congress. In other words, approval by Congress does not necessarily have to be part of the calculation of when an attack could take place."
Gardiner identifies what he considers to be some high probability immediate consequences of air strikes on Iran. These include an Iranian strike against Israel, the targeting of U.S. forces in Iraq, and Iran's channeling more weapons to hard-line Shiite militias in Iraq. Longer-term consequences could include a spike in oil prices and a backlash among other Arab states in the region against the United States.
According to Gardiner's report, the administration is not seriously seeking diplomatic solutions to the Iran nuclear issue. "From diplomacy to sanctions, the administration is not making good-faith efforts to avert a war so much as going through the motions, eliminating other possible strategies of engagement, until the only option left on the table is the military one," he writes.
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