The same surveys showed extraordinary turnout among evangelicals, who represented some 60 percent of Republican caucusgoers. In years past, Republican Party leaders in Iowa put evangelical turnout at about 40 percent.The unanswered question is whether the 60 percent figure for evangelical caucusgoers represents increased activity among evangelicals or whether it reveals that non-evangelicals are abandoning the party.
Mr. Romney’s advisers had been saying that if evangelical turnout rose to more than 50 percent, victory would be impossible for Mr. Romney, whose Mormon faith is regarded as heretical by many evangelicals. Mr. Romney’s past support for abortion rights also troubled many Christian conservatives.
My guess is that the Iowa GOP has lost support among non-evangelicals. News reports indicate that participation in the Democratic caucuses in Iowa nearly doubled from the last election.
1 comment:
This is what Andrew Sullivan (http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/01/the-state-of-th.html ) had to say:
"Twice as many people turned out for the Democrats than the Republicans. Clearly independents prefer the Dems.
"... Now look at how the caucus-goers defined themselves in the entrance polls. Among the Dems: Very Liberal: 18 percent; Somewhat Liberal: 36 percent; Moderate: 40 percent; Conservative: 6 percent. Now check out the Republicans: Very Conservative: 45 percent; Somewhat Conservative: 43 percent; Moderate: 11 percent; Liberal: 1 percent.
"One is a national party; the other is on its way to being an ideological church. The damage Bush and Rove have done - revealed in 2006 - is now inescapable."
If he has captured the situation correctly, and if Iowa is not unique, then this was very significant.
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