With the price of gasoline soaring, announcing that inflation is coming is nothing new, but we ain't seen nothin' yet.
China just began to value the yuan against a basket of currencies instead of against the dollar. That means that the devaluation of the dollar has just begun. The price of everything we buy from overseas is about to go up and up and up.
We can cut imports on everything but oil.
The abysmal "cut taxes and spend" fiscal policies of this administration are about to catch up to us.
You don't have to be an economist to know that "happy days" are over economically.
17 comments:
What about unemployment being at its lowest levels since 9-11? If we had not continued to cut taxes and gone the other direction (as Kerry would have done), we would be in the middle of a complete recession. Lots of things have occured that this administration had nothing to do with. If Congress would pass the energy bill (which is being held up by your Democrat boys) then we could cut gas prices by possibly 30% just by threatening to open up the Alaskan oil reserves. You don't have to be an economist to know that all the blame doesn't rest on the Bush administration. Its just a matter of hype from a liberal slant. If Alan Greenspan's not that concerned, then neither am I.
D.R.,
Regarding your unemployment rate, here's a link:
The Dropout Puzzle
What we need to do is bring home our troops from foreign lands, control our borders, and inspect all that stuff coming in from overseas. Then start up a "moon landing" project to convert our nation to cellulosic alcohol and forget Big Oil. Then we could be self sufficient, and get rid of our Empire...
Hey Bruce,
here's two articles that directly rebutt Krugman.
On the deficit: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/07/13/business/13deficit.html?ex=1122091200&en=a690091a47c1ba90&ei=5070&ex=1121918400&ei=5065&en=9dcb06aa0092a4e4&ex=1122091200&adxnnl=1&partner=MYWAY&pagewanted=print&adxnnlx=1122000118-zLa+jX6XlRYV3Dbkg5v/iA
And on what employment rates indicate:
http://www.wanniski.com/showarticle.asp?articleid=4501
There are two sides to every economics argument.
D.R.
Neither of your articles are convincing to me.
I could give you anecdotal evidence for my position but will forego that.
I'm making a note to refer back to this post in 6 months and again in a year. Then we will see whose "experts" proved more prescient.
I bought gasoline today for $2.11 a gallon. I'll record the price of gasoline and whether the economy is technically in recession 6 months and a year from now.
DR
What many people do not realize is that the "official" unemployment numbers published by the government is NOT THE SAME as the number of people who are out of work. A person is only counted in the official number as long as they are collecting benefits. Once their benefits run out, they are not longer counted as "unemployed," even if they have not found a job. For this reason, when you hear anything about the unemployment rate, you have to realize that you are not hearing a true picture.
God Bless,
TammyJo
Great man, I will hold you to your promise in 6 months. Will you also post it if you are wrong? I will promise to do so on my blog (if I'm wrong) if you will promise to do so on yours (if you're wrong). What do you think?
D.R.
"Will you also post it if you are wrong?" You must be mistaking me for someone associated with the administration that no longer publishes figures about the increasing number of terrorist incidents since the "war on terror" began.
I'll post the information in 6 months -- whatever the results.
tammyjo58,
You are so right. One more thing I might add is that those figures do not include the underemployed. They have found jobs...no longer drawing unemployment...however don't earn enough to live on. There are three members in my immediate family who fall into that category... one lives with us.
Bruce, I will hold to it and hold you to it as well. Thanks for being a good sport!
Tammyjo and Marty,
The numbers still indicate real change because the system of calculation has remained the same. Say for instance, that during the Bush administration, the policy changed regarding how to calculate the unemployment rate and now no longer included the groups you mentioned. Then you would have an argument. But, regardless of what people it leaves out or misconstrues, it does so consistantly, thus giving us a consistant read on the unemployment index. For your argument to be valid you would have to show conclusively (not just theoretically) that the numbers of people in those two groups you named are of a higher percentage now than at other times when unemployment was at this same rate. That is seriously difficult since as you indicated they don't measure those types of numbers (under-jobed and off benefits).
So I say the numbers still stand as an indicator that the economy is not in for a slump. And once oil settles down a bit, we should be in much better shape economically.
D.R.
Tell that to my family members who are struggling to survive, who once had good paying jobs, and now work $7.50 an hour. It's all they can find. Tell them the economy is getting better. Gas alone getting to their low income jobs is breaking them financially and preventing them from becoming self-sufficient. You have no clue. I agree with Monk-in-Training. He's got it figured out.
Yeah, I have no clue. I am just a recent graduate of seminary dilligently seeking a position in order to support my brand new wife who will be working full time and going to nursing school full time in less than a month who happens to have a stockpile of student loans hanging over my head with the eminent threat of rising interest rates and who also works a job I am completely overqualified for making $7.14 an hour. By the way, did I mention that I have no health insurance and we can't afford any right now? So, I would suggest Marty not assuming someone has no clue without getting your facts straight first.
I do sympathize with your family's plight and I in no way degraded that in my comments. We are talking about the economy here. In no economy in no country will there ever be perfect situations for everyone. No matter if a democrat or a republican is in office. The fact remains that the economy does seem to be getting better. That was my point. Let's stick to those points and not bring in personal issues into it. I spoke to the statements regarding how you viewed the legitimacy of unemployment rates you made in your comment, not to your personal situation. Not only that I did not use a sarcastic or condescending tone. I didn't expect to receive one. If I personally attacked your character or that of others, then fine, attack mine. But until then Marty, lets leave that out of it. What do you say?
D.R.
I was talking about the economy. My family's situation, of which I did not go into any detail, is a direct result of a failing economy. Your situation, on the other hand, is not.
Marty,
I did write a comment and respond, but I deleted it because, you know what man, that was just ridiculous to say. I'm not going to play the "I'm a bigger victim" game with you. If you can't see that ministry positions and salaries of people working in retail (as I do) aren't effected by the economy then I am simply wasting my time debating with someone who doesn't undertstand what we are debating about and keeps on bringing up personal issues in an attempt to distract from dealing with the issue at hand, which is the FUTURE economic picture, not the present or past one. That is what I responded to in your original comment. You made it personal and continue to do so. I will no longer discuss this with you.
Harold,
Thanks for your technical input.
All that algebra and calculus you do in your meteorological work gives you a big leg up on most of us when it comes to the ratios and averages of economic statistics.
Bruce, two more economic indicators came out today showing a recovering and steady economy. They were a rise in consumer spending and in factory orders. And several of those financial gurus on CNBC are saying our economy is only going to get better barring any unforseen tragedy like 9-11. Just keeping you updated.
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